| | | | How Will the Huawei Standoff End? | | In the face of Chinese warnings, the US has indicted Huawei and its CFO, alleging Iran sanctions violations, money laundering, and stealing technology. (Huawei and Meng have denied the charges.) Ms. Meng's lawyer has called her a "pawn" in a larger game, but the case against Huawei is extensive, and now that it's been laid out, Huawei and China have fewer options, The New York Times reports.
The fallout remains unclear, but big issues are at play: China's apparent reluctance to follow US laws; US commitment to the apolitical rule of law, generally, after President Trump initially suggested he might intervene if it would help a trade deal; and the global race for 5G, as China showed again its priority of protecting Huawei abroad, this week accusing the EU of "slander" and warning it not to block Huawei from building 5G networks in Europe, as US allies turn it away over fears of spying.
At the very least, the indictment hangs over a new round of trade talks, just as a Chinese negotiating team arrived today in Washington. | | Today was yet another in the endless stream of high-stakes Brexit moments: Prime Minister Theresa May had intended to seek a better deal from Brussels; Parliament passed a (nonbinding) amendment to block a no-deal Brexit; it passed another demanding a change over the Irish border in May's existing deal; and Brussels rejected the idea of negotiating ANYTHING new.
It may be time for the world—not just Britain—to panic, journalist James Ball writes for CNN: News is dominated by lurid warnings of trucks lined up at the UK's borders, but the real story is that a no-deal Brexit would cause a deep recession in one of the world's largest and most interconnected economies, with deep global banking ties, and would inevitably spill over. If Greek debt was a concern for the global economy, no-deal Brexit should be on another scale. | | Venezuela Remains in Flux | | | The situation in Venezuela remains uncertain, and White House National Security Adviser John Bolton raised some eyebrows after eagle-eyed journalists noted what was scribbled on a notebook he was holding at a briefing: "5,000 troops to Colombia." Colombia's foreign minister indicated he didn't know what Bolton was talking about.
Despite the bluster, Charles Lane argues in The Washington Post that this is one instance of the Trump administration pursuing a worthy goal and assembling a multinational coalition around it—but after the US issued new sanctions, Venezuela's citizens could suffer, and higher world oil prices could make it harder to keep up sanctions on Iran, Keith Johnson writes in Foreign Policy. | | A Post-American Afghanistan | | Progress toward a US/Taliban agreement has worried one of America's most seasoned voices on Afghanistan: former ambassador Ryan Crocker. President Trump so clearly wants to leave, Crocker tells Foreign Policy, that he has many concerns including that 1) the US is negotiating from weakness, 2) talks might ignore the long view since Trump clearly wants to leave soon, 3) there is little reason to trust the Taliban, and 4) it will eventually take over after America leaves.
If the US goal is to deny safe haven to terrorist groups, a US intelligence assessment may cause some anxiety: Produced in 2017 and renewed late last year, it predicted a complete US pullout would result in an attack on America within two years, The New York Times reports, noting other military and diplomatic experts share Crocker's concerns. | | How Trump Has Strengthened Iran | | President Trump came into office vowing toughness on Iran, and new sanctions have squeezed Iran's economy (and leadership).
But Iran's influence has grown in the Trump era, Indiana University Profs. Jamsheed and Carol Choksy write for YaleGlobal. Cases in point: Its influence will grow in Syria; it's aligned with Russia in the Middle East; China and India have sought oil-sanctions waivers; and smaller allies are moving closer to it—Kyrgyzstan (which has hosted a US air base) allows Revolutionary Guard movement through its territory, and Qatar has reopened relations.
Three of America's closest allies, meanwhile, continue to ignore Trump's biggest Iran priority: France, Germany, and the UK are still devising a financial workaround to do business with Iran while avoiding US sanctions, despite US warnings not to do so. | | | | | | |
