Wednesday, 23 January 2019

Chaos in Venezuela

Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good.
 
January 23, 2019

Chaos in Venezuela

Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro had maintained a tenuous grasp on power, beginning his second term this month after an election viewed as illegitimate, as opposition candidates were barred from running.
 
It does not appear to have lasted: Today, 35-year-old opposition politician and National Assembly leader Juan Guaido swore himself in as president and called for new elections; President Trump and the Organization of American States recognized Guaido as Venezuela's leader; Maduro ordered US diplomats out of the country; and a Trump administration official called the order "meaningless."
 
It is unclear what will happen next, but today may mark the end of Venezuela's long-running and mostly continuous socialist regime, as Maduro's presidency has been, in a way, a continuation of Hugo Chavez's rule that began in 1999 and signified a center of socialism in Latin America.

Should Brexit Worry Northern Ireland?

A car bomb in Derry over the weekend revived fears of sectarian violence in Northern Ireland, and while the bombing may have had nothing to do with Brexit, CNN's Nic Robertson writes that Brexit—and its looming border between the UK and Ireland—has stoked concerns and that the car bomb "will play into fears that the Brexit deadlock could open up the troubles of the past."
 
Politico EU suggests we should worry: The Brexit vote fell along unionist/nationalist lines in Northern Ireland and will lead to the "inevitable … inequity" of Irish citizens with EU nationality and UK citizens without—which can't bode well for a fragile post-conflict region.

Rise of the Strongmen

2018 was a good year for strongmen, and while President Donald Trump has stepped back US pressure for democracy and human rights, the trend isn't just about Trump, Robert Kagan writes in Foreign Policy: Leaders from Egypt's Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to Saudi Arabia's Muhammad bin Salman have succeeded, in part, "because even Americans are not so sure how they feel about democracy."
 
Speaking of strongmen, it's been a good year for Russian President Vladimir Putin, too, Cipher Brief writes: He's evaded consequences over the poisoning of a former Russian spy in the UK and has gained a bargaining chip over Washington with the arrest of American Paul Whelan on spying charges.

What Will Happen if the US Extradites Huawei's CFO?

The US has said it will indeed extradite Huawei's CFO from Canada, and Beijing has again responded with a threat: The US will face "further response" unless the Justice Dept. drops it.
 
What could that response entail? Experts wonder if China will prosecute a US company, or continue to pressure US allies against cooperating with Washington—as it has in Canada's case—and Hofstra law Prof. Julian Ku says detaining Americans is not "out of the question," the South China Morning Post reports.
 
While it may not be related to Huawei or US tensions, China finds itself in yet another diplomatic row, this time after detaining a former diplomat who is now a citizen of Australia.
 
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