Monday, 22 July 2019

Hong Kong’s New Radicalism

Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good
 
July 22, 2019

Hong Kong's New Radicalism

"What was once radical here, both in action and in discourse, is becoming the norm," Timothy McLaughlin writes for The Atlantic, as Hong Kong's protests have turned more aggressive, and as police have used batons and pepper spray to suppress them.

A night of violence—which included police clashes, a mob attacking protesters, and the defacement of a Chinese national emblem—may have signified a turn in the protest movement, and the South China Morning Post opines in an editorial that "enough is enough." Hong Kong authorities have let things spiral out of control and need to get a handle on the situation without letting tensions escalate between police and protesters, the paper argues. The Economist shares in a sense of alarm, writing that "Hong Kong's stability is being challenged as never before since the British departure."

The Overblown Threat of Iran

In a New York Review of Books essay, Steven Simon and Jonathan Stevenson make a detailed case against war with Iran. Tehran isn't the threat American hawks make it out to be, they argue—its proxies don't really dominate the region, its military is under-equipped, and its Navy is comprised of small boats—and yet the US has weaponized sanctions, usually an alternative to war, to push things to the brink.

"It remains impossible to tell whether the administration actually intends to go to war, is merely engaging in coercive diplomacy, or is adrift in a sea of miscues. It may not matter. In a maelstrom of probes and provocations, strategic intention may give way to heedless reaction," they write.

In recent days, tensions have centered on Iran's seizure of a British tanker, but troublesome as that development may be, Rodger Shanahan writes for the Lowy Institute's Interpreter blog that it's simply a tit-for-tat response to Britain's similar actions and that the UK should have seen it coming.

America 'Needs to Talk About China'

That's what Minxin Pei suggests at Project Syndicate. As the Trump administration maneuvers the US into a new Cold War with China, polling suggests Americans mostly see China as an economic threat, not a military one, and it remains questionable whether even a purely economic clash would be in American workers' best interest.

A democratic country "cannot pursue a long-term struggle with a powerful geopolitical adversary without sustained political support from an informed public," Pei points out, noting young people will be stuck with the consequences of a protracted US-China standoff. With such a large, potential conflict at stake, Pei recommends the US have a healthy internal debate and figure out what it really wants.

Has the US Reached a Foreign Policy Consensus?

World Politics Review editors ponder that question in the latest episode of the publication's "Trend Lines" podcast. Their conclusion: Not exactly. On Russia and China, debates still linger over how aggressively the US should confront its rivals. One piece of consensus emerging in the Trump era, however, is bipartisan skepticism of Saudi Arabia, the editors argue. After the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, and after the Trump administration has followed Saudi Arabia's lead in setting its Middle East policies, both Democrats and Republicans seem to agree that the US should lean on (and support) Gulf monarchies far less.

Tech Is Driving the New Socialism

Comparing our current era to the Gilded Age—a time when rapid technological developments fed inequality, contributed to a sense of alienation, and saw a rise in socialist politics—Richard Thompson Ford argues in an American Interest essay that today's "neo-socialism" is mostly a reaction to automation and emerging tech.

Politicians like Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are "leading the way in addressing the challenges new technology poses for human welfare," he writes; while far-right populism has been a misguided response to inequality and technology, the rise of "neo-socialist" populism is a "wake-up call to mainstream politicians sleeping through the tech revolution," Ford argues. It's also nothing to be afraid of, he writes: Today's strain of socialism is more akin to New Deal liberalism than Soviet-style communism.

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