| | | | Hong Kong and China, Locked in a Spiral | | Hong Kong and China appear to be locked in an intractable stalemate, Antony Dapiran writes in a Foreign Policy op-ed, with Beijing's attempts at control sparking "outbursts of popular protest in a seemingly endless cycle. It is a status quo that pleases nobody."
China "has lost the hearts and minds of this generation of Hong Kongers," he writes, while arguing that it may be better for Hong Kong to give into some Chinese control, for the sake of its own stability. In the Nikkei Asian Review, Karoline Kan writes somewhat discouragingly of mainland resentment of Hong Kongers, whom some see as riding the coattails of China's economic emergence. That sentiment may be part of Beijing's "plan," she suggests, because "[t]o truly understand Hong Kongers' fears would make mainlanders afraid too." | | China's Tech Bubble Bursts | | The party's over for Chinese tech startups that once enjoyed easy access to investment, Louise Lucas writes in the Financial Times."From shared bikes and food delivery to online English classes, companies are finding that their consumer-focused business models do not add up because of intense competition," she writes. Firms have found that giving away value to gain market share is risky, investors aren't so quick to write checks after little more than a PowerPoint presentation, and the size of acquisition deals in the sector has plummeted.
Some see these signs as mere "teething pains" in a promising Chinese tech sector, Lucas writes, but while much of the bursting bubble has to do with consumer-facing, sharing-economy startup ideas, she also notes skepticism that China's tech sector can come up with profitable business models for the next technological waves, like 5G and the Internet of Things. | | Will Trump Deliver More Power to Iran's Hardliners? | | | As tensions have escalated between Iran and the West, Jalil Bayat writes at LobeLog that Tehran's decisions (to seize a tanker, down a drone, and allegedly deploy mines, for instance) indicate anti-Western voices are prevailing in Iran's intra-governmental politics. That's a sign the standoff with President Trump may wind up ensconcing those voices in power, Bayat writes: "Iran will hold parliamentary elections in February 2020. If the current trend continues moderates can be expected to suffer a significant defeat, leaving parliament in the hands of hardliners." | | With protests emerging over restrictions on local-election candidates, Russian governance is once again drawing headlines, and in an American Interest essay, Andrew Wood asks what will happen after President Vladimir Putin's term ends in 2024.
While another term can't be ruled out, Wood suggests Putin's style of governance has become so ingrained in Russia's power structures that the country may struggle to turn away from "Putinism," even after he's gone. "The personalized authoritarian system that now exists in Russia could not now be eased apart in manageable units without compromising its central objective—ensuring its hold on power," Wood argues, writing of Russia's political, security, and business elites that "Putin is the linchpin that holds them together." All of which suggests, to him, a looming problem that may eventually lead to a popular discontent and a liberalizing "color revolution" within Russia's borders. | | Stuck in the Middle With Moon | | In the latest issue of Global Asia, a series of essays portrays South Korean President Moon Jae-in—the "man in the middle" between President Trump and North Korea's Kim Jong Un—as shrewdly pursuing an opening with the North through incremental efforts on multiple fronts, including a rail link, energy cooperation, and joint fishing areas. "Such an economic community would facilitate the free flow of people, goods and services, resembling a state of de facto, if not de jure, unification" of the peninsula, Chung-in Moon writes—even though high-level summitry has focused on nuclear weapons.
Efforts to build trust between the North and South's militaries "have been rudimentary, [but] they have at least reduced tensions and promoted reconciliation and cooperation," Ki-Jung Kim and Bo-hyuk Suh write. Moon has approached the North with promises to seek peace and not regime change, and Gareth Evans argues that a holistic commitment to peace will be more important than getting the North to discard its nukes. If the relevant players "bring the right cooperative mindset to the task, and spend time and energy in building effective institutional reinforcements … there are still some grounds for hope that catastrophe can be avoided," he writes. | | | | | | |
