Tuesday, 31 March 2020

Tuesday Morning Briefing: Scanning the infection curve

Coronavirus

Scanning the infection curve

More than 777,000 people have been infected across the world and over 37,500 have died, according to a Reuters tally at 0200 GMT on Tuesday. Health officials around the world are scanning the latest data in the hope of spotting signs that the curve is starting to flatten as a result of now-widespread lockdown measures.

Australia for example, with some 4,400 coronavirus cases, is seeing the rate of growth in new infections slowing from 25-30% a week ago to an average of 9% over the past three days.

In Spain, the daily infection increase has slowed since the introduction of lockdown measures, falling to 12% on average in the past five days from around 20% in the preceding 10 days.

But while these may offer glimpses of a possible slow-down, health experts everywhere warn that it is too early to restart anything resembling normal life. Moreover, the death toll - which tends to trail new infections by a few weeks - is still rising: both France and the United States recorded their deadliest days on Monday.

The long arm of the law?

Britain's police force, which has long prided itself on being ultimately answerable to the public and not the state, has been accused of heavy-handedness when it comes to enforcing social distancing measures.

Tactics under fire include the use of drones to spy on those taking walks at beauty spots, or action to stop dog-walkers from driving their pets to open spaces. There have also been reports that they have told shops not to sell Easter eggs because they were not "essential items".

Transport Minister Grant Shapps acknowledged there had been individual cases where police may have gone "a bit further than they should have gone" but insisted they were only intervening to enforce compliance with rules as a last resort.

G20 pledges to keep markets open, supplies flowing

G20 trade ministers pledged to keep their markets open and ensure a continued flow of vital medical supplies, equipment and other essential goods. But they stopped short of explicitly calling for an end to export restrictions that many countries - including France, Germany and India - have enacted on drugs and medical supplies.

As air freight capacity plunges and lockdowns mean that businesses are struggling to find laborer's, truck drivers and shipping crews, supply chains are backing up, and all eyes now are on possible disruptions to food supplies.

U.S. spies find it hard to chart spread

U.S. spy agencies are finding serious gaps in their ability to assess the spread of coronavirus in China, Russia and North Korea, hindering U.S. and international efforts to manage the crisis.

"We want to have as close an accurate, real-time understanding of where the global hotspots are and where they are evolving," said Jeremy Konyndyk, an expert at the Center for Global Development thinktank, who led the Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance from 2013 to 2017.

"The world is not going to get rid of this thing until we get rid of it everywhere."

Track the spread with our live interactive graphic

Breakingviews - Corona Capital: HK ads, UK shopping, FCA/Hermes
Read concise views on the pandemic’s financial fallout from Breakingviews columnists across the globe.

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World

Exclusive: A businessman who received millions of dollars for his work on Tokyo’s successful campaign to host the 2020 Olympics, which was postponed last week due to the coronavirus, said he played a key role in securing the support of a former Olympics powerbroker suspected by French prosecutors of taking bribes to help Japan’s bid.

The world’s busiest land border has fallen quiet as restrictions to contain the coronavirus prevent millions of Mexicans from making daily trips north, including many who work in U.S. businesses. At least 4 million Mexicans residing in cities along the order have been hit hard by the restrictions on non-essential travel.

Exclusive: The Trump administration is calling for a transitional government in Venezuela made up of the opposition and some members of President Nicolas Maduro’s Socialist Party and is laying out for the first time how U.S. sanctions might eventually be lifted, including on the vital oil sector.

The unpaved road leading to Sierra Leone’s Outamba-Kilimi national park was busy last month with men loading rosewood logs into trucks for export to China, an illegal trade that has devastated some West African forests. Now, the trucks are empty, parked alongside piles of wood blanketed in thick dust.

Business

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WPP the world’s biggest advertising company, said it was pulling its dividend and share buyback, and withdrawing its guidance for 2020 after the coronavirus outbreak forced an increasing number of clients to cancel work.

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