| | | | Orban's Visit, America's Shift | | Today's White House visit by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, widely viewed as one of Europe's most illiberal leaders, reveals how American foreign policy has changed under President Trump, The Washington Post suggests in an editorial: While presidents Bush and Obama shunned Orban, Trump shows a preference for autocrats, at the same time letting America's traditional European alliances fall by the wayside.
Despite the symbolism of Trump hosting a fellow populist, some have argued that a warmer relationship with Hungary makes sense, as it shores up influence in Eastern Europe at a time when Russia is becoming more aggressive. At Foreign Policy, Melissa Hooper and Gregory Feifer question that analysis, pointing out Orban's Hungary has deepened ties with Russia and China alike. | | Iran's leaders haven't responded publicly, but President Trump's offer to talk has "generated a lively debate," writes Kaveh L. Afrasiabi at LobeLog. Iran remains deeply suspicious of Trump, but Iranian media have mostly decided that war with the US is unlikely and that current tensions will persist without open conflict, Afrasiabi writes.
The Trump administration seems to misunderstand Iran's way of thinking, International Crisis Group Director Ali Vaez argues at The Atlantic. Iran would rather suffer under sanctions than raise a "white flag," wants to teach Washington that pressure tactics won't work, and, according to historic precedent, won't negotiate without a strong hand, Vaez writes. | | Can Democracy Handle Coming Population Shifts? | | | Demographic signs point to new waves of immigration in the coming decades, and global politics could suffer under the strain, Jack A. Goldstone and Larry Diamond write in the spring issue of the Hoover Institution's Governance in an Emerging New World.
A handful of emerging economies in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia will add 1.25 billion workers to the global labor pool by 2060; that population boom could beget civil conflict, while climate catastrophes may force waves of people to exit. At the same time, rich countries are aging and will need younger workers, meaning incentives will align in both developed and emerging economies for workers to move.
Immigration has already meant a populist backlash in rich countries, and the authors worry global democracy will further erode, under these stark population trend-lines, as developed countries struggle to welcome the new, younger workers they will need to keep their economies growing. The solution, according to the authors: better, more orderly immigration policies in rich countries and more stable governance in developing ones. | | Russia Plants Its Flag in the Middle East | | After its successful mission to prop up President Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Russia has "returned as a power-broker in the Middle East for the first time since the dissolution of the Soviet Union," The Economist writes. And it seems to be getting along with everyone, miraculously maintaining good relations with both sides in many of the region's long-standing disputes.
Echoing the sentiment, RAND's Christine Wormuth recently testified to Congress that Russia has deepened ties with Israel, partnered with Iran, upped its arms sales to the region (50% of Russia's arms sales now go to the Middle East, she writes, compared with 36% in 2015), and "sees the Middle East as a region where it can demonstrate that it remains a great power." | | What's Missing from China Talks | | | While the Trump administration confronts China over trade, Frida Ghitis writes for CNN that an important topic is missing from that conversation: China's treatment of Muslims in its west. With as many as three million ethnic-minority Uyghurs believed to be held in government-run camps, Ghitis writes that America is more concerned with economics, while human rights have critically fallen off the agenda. | | | | | | |
