Thursday, 18 April 2019

Report Heard Round the World

Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good
 
April 18, 2019

Report Heard Round the World

The Mueller report, anxiously anticipated in the US, made headlines around the world: President Trump's colorful language provided apt fodder for The Sun, Le Monde called its revelations "sensitive, confidential, compromising," and the Sydney Morning Herald noted Trump's "efforts to control" the Russia probe.
 
China's Xinhua news agency pointed out the divisions and "partisan wrangling" that have followed its release, while Russia's TASS led with Trump's fear that Mueller's investigation would end his presidency.

Russian Spring?

Russia is undergoing a "new social awakening," with activism and protests on the rise and liberal causes attracting donations, Barbara von Ow-Freytag writes at Carnegie Europe. Russians are uniting over causes like environmentalism and favoring social justice, von Ow-Freytag writes.
 
Polling backs up the argument: As von Ow-Freytag points out, in 2019 more Russians have said the country is on the wrong track than at any point since President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine, and favorable opinions of the EU have climbed 10 points since January of last year.

Will Climate Action Upend the Middle East?

Oil-rich countries in the Middle East have been trying—and failing—to diversify their economies, according to a report from the Peterson Institute of International Economics. Relying on oil exports is especially risky, right now, in part because global anti-emissions efforts figure to make it less profitable in decades to come, the report warns.
 
It's an important trend to watch, because the region faces economic challenges—youth unemployment hit 30% in 2017—and when oil prices drop, social discontent can follow, as economies weaken. Bahrain, Oman, and the UAE are the most diversified (and best prepared, economically), the report finds; Iraq, Libya, Algeria, and Saudi Arabia remain most vulnerable to oil's ups and downs.

Erdogan's Gamble

The party of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has called for a new vote in Istanbul's mayoral election, and the Financial Times' Laura Pitel writes that such a move "could easily backfire."
 
Mayoral results in Istanbul and Ankara were seen as a blow to Erdogan (the opposition candidate in Istanbul has become a "hero" to the president's opponents), and Pitel warns that not only could Erdogan's favored candidate lose in a do-over, canceling the first results could undermine Turkish democracy, escalate tensions with the West, and scare off international investment, worsening an economic downturn that has been Erdogan's biggest liability to begin with.

Conflicts to Watch in 2019

The International Crisis Group has updated its list of conflicts to watch, rounding up early-warning signs that may be flying under the radar, while the wars in Syria, Yemen, and Libya dominate headlines.
 
The group sees signs of trouble in Israel, where tensions with Palestinians are flaring over control of a Jerusalem building and the wait for an American peace plan; Mexico, where drug cartels have devolved into more and smaller armed groups; North Korea, where talks with the US have stalled; and the Syrian refugee population in Turkey, where some 65% of 3.6 million Syrian refugees are aged 15-24 and are vulnerable to exploitation and abuse.
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