Friday, 21 December 2018

Fareed: There May Be Hope for the West After All

Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team.
December 21, 2018

Fareed: There May Be Hope for the West After All

Destructive waves of populism may have gained strength in the West this year. "But concern should not give way to despair," writes Fareed in his latest column for The Washington Post. "There are many people in every country who oppose the politics of anger and identity. They are also strong."

French President Macron backtracks on reforms; Brexit flails; Hungary and Poland seem "poster children for the populist-nationalist movement."

But look closer: "support for the EU is at its highest level in decades." And "the story of the past few months has mostly been one of pushback."

"[E]fforts to reshape [Poland's] Supreme Court ignited massive national protests"—and Warsaw backed down. Hungary's authoritarian Prime Minister Orban now faces a rebellion "uniting the nation's opposition forces as never before." Britain is waking up to the reality of Brexit. 

"And finally, look at the United States, where a president who proudly embraces populism and nationalism reigns," Fareed writes. With the Democrats' historic gains in the House, President Trump may finally be held to account. "For two years, Republicans have ruled Washington, giving them control over all information from government sources and all powers of subpoena and oversight. That ends Jan. 3."

  • For more, tune into GPS this Sunday at 10am & 1pm EST on CNN

The Long View on Syria Withdrawal?

"Rarely has the repositioning of 2,200 American troops out of a far-flung military theater caused such a ruckus," writes Russell Berman in The Atlantic, referring to Trump's promised withdrawal of troops from Syria. 

"[L]ongtime experts on Syria policy were neither shocked nor, in some cases, particularly alarmed." Like President Obama, Trump is a sceptic of geopolitical rationales for US military intervention—and Syria is not an American security interest in the long term. Trump's decision is "sloppy" and "haphazard," but it may be the right move.

Surprising it is not, writes Berman. "However hasty, the withdrawal from Syria reflects not only Trump's oft-expressed desire to pull back on US military intervention in the Middle East, but a more expansive Syria strategy that the president never bought into." 

Troop Drawdown Imperils Afghan Diplomacy

"Trump's instincts" to withdraw large numbers of troops from Afghanistan are "understandable," writes Fred Kaplan in Slate. "This has been America's longest war and its most bewildering. Trump is trying to finish it, but in a way that will only deepen the damage and disillusionment."

Regrettably, the withdrawal "comes as the diplomatic side of the strategy finally seems close to bearing fruit."  

In 2017 (soon-to-be former) Defense Secretary Mattis persuaded Trump to persist with a strategy of "more bombing, coupled with more active diplomacy." Since then, the emissary to Afghanistan has made "considerable progress toward bringing the Taliban to the peace table—even toward luring them to sit down with the Kabul government." 

Trump's halving of US troops on the ground, "with no concessions from the Taliban or anyone else, seriously erodes" the leverage of the diplomatic wing. 

Twilight of a Wall

The country teeters on the edge of government shutdown as Democrats refuse to cave to President Trump's demand to fund the Mexican border wall. (CNN)

But any wall on the US-Mexico border will soon be "beside the point," writes Janan Ganesh in Financial Times. "Asians are projected to become the largest share of the overall US immigrant population by the middle of the century." "The wall, unless it is built around airports to the tune of 40,000 vertical feet, is a non-factor."

The specter of the wall "distracts from the country's true demographic future… [M]ore people have immigrated to the US from Asia than from Latin America in every year since 2010… [O]ver the same period, two of the four countries with the largest net immigration to the US were China and India" and "the US has accepted more refugees from Asia than from Europe, Latin America and Africa put together."

"It is a stretch, I know, to hope that a wider range of immigrants will soothe anti-immigrant sentiment," writes Ganesh. But the future hinges on the votes of Asian immigrants. In spite of the conservative casting of Asians as "model minorities," "Asian voters still broke for the Democrats in the midterm elections."

Happy New Year, from GPS! 

Dear Global Briefing readers, 

This is the last newsletter for 2018. We'll get right back to it in 2019. Meanwhile...

Happy Holidays & Happy New Year! 

Warmest Wishes, 
Fareed & the GPS Team 

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