January's U.S. jobs report is so stunningly good that it looks bad for investors hoping for an interest rate pause. |
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| S&P500 Close 4,136.48 |  | -1.04% | | S&P500 Futures 4,129.75 | | -0.43% | | 10Y Treasury 3.541% |  | 0.00% | | As of MON, FEB 06, 2023 • 03:32 ET |
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| S&P500 Close 4,136.48 | | -1.04% | | | S&P500 Futures 4,129.75 | | -0.43% | | | 10Y Treasury 3.541% | | 0.00% | | As of MON, FEB 06, 2023 • 03:32 ET |
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| What you need to know today |
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- January's U.S. jobs report was stunning all around. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 517,000 for the month, shattering analysts' estimate of 187,000. Unemployment rate fell to 3.4%, the lowest since May 1969.
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- U.S. stocks, worried by what such a strong jobs report means for the future of interest rates, fell broadly on Friday with all indexes registering losses. Asia-Pacific shares ended Friday mixed, as troubled Indian conglomerate Adani Enterprises managed to close 1.38% higher.
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- Amazon's shares took a hit following the company's earnings report, falling 8%. Though both Apple and Alphabet posted a disappointing fourth quarter too, Alphabet's stock slipped 2%, while Apple's gained 2%.
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- PRO First it was Chevron with a buyback of $75 billion. Next, Meta announced its own $40 billion plan. Is this a sign that stock buybacks are going to grow more common in 2023?
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Boon Ping Yeo | Monday February 06 2023 |
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In ordinary economic times — that is, the past 20 years or so of low inflation, moderate unemployment and slow growth — January's employment numbers would have been a cause of celebration. Regardless of the angle you look at, the report gleamed: A 517,000 increase in employment — almost three times what analysts expected. An unemployment rate of 3.4% — the lowest in more than 50 years. An hourly wage growth of 0.3% — solid, but still moderating from the rest of the year.
Yet markets fell on the news. On Friday, the S&P 500 declined 1.04% to 4,136.48, the Nasdaq Composite lost its red-hot streak and fell 1.59%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.38%. True, the indexes may have been reacting to earnings: Apple, Alphabet and Amazon, which in combination have a market capitalization of nearly $5 trillion, turned in results for the year's final quarter that had more misses than hits. Investors' disappointment was reflected in the companies' share prices (though it has to be noted that Apple's shares actually gained 2% after experiencing an early loss), which, in turn, reverberated through the indexes.
Foremost on investors' minds, however, must surely be how the job report will affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory. Central bankers have repeatedly emphasized that they're looking at economic data to determine how far to take hikes. The question is: Which set of data are they prioritizing? We know that inflation, consumption and manufacturing figures have fallen in December. But January's job report paints a picture of an incredibly robust labor market that might keep inflation persistently high, especially in the services sector, which saw the most gains last month. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated he's focusing on the labor market, which he described in his Wednesday post-meeting news conference as "out of balance." Investors betting on a rate pause or pivot might be forced by the Fed to find a new equilibrium too.
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