Thursday 28 July 2022

Inflation? Recession? Both?

Thursday, July 28, 2022

by Derek Caney

Hello

Here's what you need to know.

A slower pace of U.S. interest rate hikes?... Russia’s network of spies … a possible boost for President Biden’s agenda

Today's biggest stories

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange as a screen shows Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell during a news conference following a Fed rate announcement, in New York. July 27, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

BUSINESS & MARKETS

The U.S. Federal Reserve jacked up interest rates by a jumbo-sized 0.75 percentage point for the second consecutive time, in hopes of bringing soaring inflation under control.

Stock markets rallied initially in the U.S., as some market watchers detected a softening in the Fed’s language about the pace of future rate hikes. Asian investors responded with a greater appetite for emerging markets. But in Europe, the market was focused more on the prospects for a recession.

We’ll get another look at economic prospects in the U.S. at 8:30 this morning, when the U.S. gets its first look at gross domestic product in the second quarter. The consensus estimate is annualized rate increase of 0.5%. But the U.S. trade deficit is the smallest in seven months and spending on capital equipment jumped, according to yesterday’s data, prompting some to raise their forecast.

JetBlue plans to buy Spirit Airlines for $3.8 billion, ending a drawn-out battle for the carrier whose acquisition would help create the fifth-largest U.S. airline.

Facebook parent Meta Platforms posted its first ever quarterly drop in revenue and a disappointing forecast, with recession fears and competitive pressures weighing on digital ad sales.

A member of the Security Service of Ukraine tapes the eyes of a man suspected to be a Russian collaborator after he was detained inside his house, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kharkiv, Ukraine, May 12, 2022. REUTERS/Ricardo Moraes

WORLD

Long before Russia invaded Ukraine, the Kremlin was building a network of secret agents to smooth its path. A Reuters investigation shows the infiltration went far deeper than has been acknowledged.

Meanwhile a Ukrainian counter-offensive has virtually cut off the Russian-occupied southern city of Kherson and left thousands of Russian troops stationed near the Dnipro River "highly vulnerable,” according to British defense and intelligence officials.

The Kremlin splashed cold water on any imminent deal to swap detained U.S. basketball star Brittney Griner for jailed Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout, although talks with the United States on a prisoner exchange are ongoing.

President Biden and China's Xi Jinping may hold their fifth call as leaders as soon as today. U.S. officials see the exchange as another chance to manage competition between the world's two largest economies, whose ties are increasingly clouded by tensions over democratically governed Taiwan, which Xi has vowed to reunite with the mainland, by force if necessary.

Remnants of a large, newly launched Chinese rocket are expected to streak back through the atmosphere this coming weekend in an uncontrolled re-entry, the Beijing government said, adding that it would be closely tracked but poses little risk to anyone on the ground.

Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV), attends the annual Allen and Co. Sun Valley Media Conference in Sun Valley, Idaho, July 7, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

U.S.

Biden’s spending plan finally got the nod from Democratic Senator Joe Manchin after months of wrangling. Manchin, a Democrat who at times is more conservative than some Republicans, has been a frequent roadblock to Biden’s agenda. But he agreed to a slimmed-down $430 billion package that would increase corporate taxes, reduce the national debt, invest in energy technologies and lower the cost of prescription drugs.

Judges in North Dakota and Wyoming blocked enforcement of "trigger" bans on abortions, allowing health care providers in those states to resume services after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

Two former Minneapolis police officers were sentenced to prison on federal charges stemming from the 2020 murder of George Floyd, the Black man who was killed when their colleague Derek Chauvin kneeled on his neck during an arrest.

Dozens of former Republican and Democratic officials are forming a new national political third party to appeal to millions of voters they say are dismayed with what they see as America's dysfunctional two-party system.

Quote of the day

"I do not think the U.S. is currently in a recession."

Jerome Powell

Chair, Federal Reserve Board

Fed jacks rates again

Video of the day

The Oak Fire burns along Highway 140, a main artery into Yosemite National Park, near Mariposa, California July 22, 2022. REUTERS/Tracy Barbutes

'Every season is worse,' says California firefighter

With California's wildfire season becoming longer and more severe each year, the state's firefighters face an arduous and uphill battle.

And finally…

Formula One champ Vettel to retire Aston Martin's Sebastian Vettel in action during the Austrian Grand Prix, Red Bull Ring, Spielberg, Austria, July 9, 2022 REUTERS/Florion Goga

Four-time Formula One world champion Sebastian Vettel announced his retirement at the end of the season.

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