| | | | Fareed: Trump Undoes America's Progress With Mexico | | "Whatever the ultimate outcome of President Trump's conflict with Mexico, one consequence is already clear," Fareed writes in his latest Washington Post column. "He has undermined one of the most impressive US foreign policy achievements of the past three decades."
That the US and Mexico have overcome a history of mistrust is a notable development for the US and its economy; two countries that once fought a war are now top trading partners and enjoy political ties. That alliance could continue, and serve as a model of cooperation in difficult times, if not for Trump's provocations and tariff threats. | | Is China Pulling Even (or Ahead) in Military Technology? | | | After a decades-long project, China's military is "increasingly close to achieving technological parity with US operational systems and has a plan to achieve technological superiority," a new report by the Center for a New American Security finds.
China has sought to "offset" US advantages by focusing on ballistic missiles that can outdo America's in range; turning to emerging technologies like AI, hypersonic weapons, and missiles that can defy US defenses; and by stealing US technology (it's "no coincidence that [China's] newest front-line fighters mimic design features of the U.S. built F-22 Raptor or F-35 Lightning II, or that some of their unmanned aerial vehicles are the spitting image of the Predator and Reaper drones," the report notes).
America still spends nearly three times what China does on defense (even after massive Chinese increases), but recent US war games have found America "could face defeat at the hands of the Chinese military in plausible scenarios," the report points out. Its conclusion: As each side seeks advancements, it's not necessarily who has the best technology that will determine which military is most powerful, but rather who can best "fit" technology with strategic and tactical plans.
Note to readers: Fareed's Global Briefing will be on hiatus next week. It will return Monday, June 17. | | War With Iran? Not So Fast. | | | Talk of US war with Iran was premature, Curt Mills writes in The National Interest, as President Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo appear to be striking softer tones. Hawkish National Security Advisor John Bolton's star may well have fallen within the administration, Mills writes (a point echoed by former Pentagon speechwriter John Gans in a CNN op-ed), and Pompeo's advocacy for dialogue now appears more significant. The US approach to Iran may now resemble Trump's relationship with North Korea, Mills writes, with pressure and threats quickly reversed in favor of offers to talk. | | Can China Nudge India and Pakistan Toward Peace? | | | Conditions look favorable for an India-Pakistan rapprochement, Mosharraf Zaidi writes in Foreign Policy, thanks in part to China. A traditional ally of Pakistan, China seems to want peace: President Xi Jinping is seeking deeper trade ties with India, and China recently offered a concession to India at the UN, by allowing a Pakistani extremist to be sanctioned, Zaidi notes. Xi may want to nudge both sides to reconcile, and he's likely to find willing partners in Pakistan, as Prime Minister Imran Khan and his army chief both appear to want calmer relations with India. An outstanding question is whether Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, recently boosted by India's elections, is on the same page. | | Natural gas is booming, according to a new International Energy Agency report, which finds 2018's jump in world gas demand (4.6%) was the largest since 2010. Several factors are at play: China is switching to natural gas, to reduce emissions and clean up its air; industry that uses gas as an input, in making chemical products for instance, is gobbling up more (it's the "principal driver" of increased gas demand, though it has nothing to do with fuel or electricity); and liquefied natural gas is "set to emerge as a fast-growing alternative fuel" for cargo ships, which will soon face new fuel standards.
It's good news for the US, which overtook Russia in 2009 as the world's top gas producer: America saw its gas production jump 11.5% in 2018 and contributed more than any other country to increased supply, as shale production has kept rolling. | | | | | | |
