| | | | What the Iran Standoff Reveals About US Power | | | As the US standoff with Iran hurtles forward, it's revealing some truths about US power, influence, and alliances. Among them, Liam Denning writes for Bloomberg, is that America can no longer ensure the security of Gulf oil shipping on its own, and thanks to domestic US oil production, it lacks the incentive to assume such a responsibility. The standoff is not only a test of American power, or of Trump's personal handling of a crisis situation, former US diplomat and Middle East specialist Dennis Ross writes in a Washington Post op-ed: It's testing Trump's entire foreign-policy doctrine of unilateralism. After Trump has alienated US allies, he finds himself in a confrontation where he might actually need them, Ross argues. Writing the Lowy Institute's Interpreter blog, Rodger Shanahan agrees, surmising that "it is precisely when the going gets difficult that you need all of your friends to support you in applying 'maximum diplomatic pressure.' And the going is getting difficult." | | Could Facebook Cause a Banking Crisis? | | | Facebook's announcement of a forthcoming cryptocurrency, Libra, has generated its share of doomsday predictions: In The Guardian, Ethan Lou writes that Libra "heralds the rise of the corporation-government," and at Bloomberg, Andy Mukherjee warns it could undermine "monetary sovereignty" and spark a wave of government-sponsored cryptocurrencies, with central banks seeking to keep their national monies relevant. But perhaps the most frightening admonition comes from Katharina Pistor, who poses a basic question at Project Syndicate: What happens if Libra becomes widely used, and then its value crashes? Libra might catch on, Pistor writes, but world governments simply couldn't ensure the survival of a massively popular, too-big-to-fail cryptocurrency in the event of a run, even if reserve currencies are set aside to back it. Governments should stop Facebook's plan, she writes, in order to block the possibility of a global financial crash no one could manage. | | The Problem With Annexation | | | After President Trump recognized Israel's hold on the Golan Heights, signs point to Israel attempting to annex more territory, Dahlia Scheindlin writes in a Cairo Review of Global Affairs essay. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already promised Israeli sovereignty over settlements in the West Bank, and Israel's right-wing parties are likely to make competing promises of annexation, ahead of this fall's elections, she writes. In light of those trends, Scheindlin reminds us of a basic problem annexing the West Bank would entail, as Israel would have to figure out how to approach the Palestinians living there. If "Palestinians in the West Bank were offered a path to citizenship, their numbers pose a more serious threat to Israel's Jewish identity," Scheindlin writes. "On the other hand, if Israel never offers full citizenship to residents of future sovereign territory, international condemnation and local dissent might grow too strong." Palestinians in the West Bank likely would choose not to participate in Israeli politics, Scheindlin writes, but Israel should worry that they might—and that absorbing them into its state could backfire. | | In Defense of American Restraint | | | In the latest episode of its Trend Lines podcast, the World Politics Review talks to author and MIT political science Prof. Barry Posen, taking a survey of world politics through Posen's view that the US should exercise strategic restraint in its foreign dealings. As an advocate of America pulling back—a hallmark of the Trump presidency—Posen makes a few points worth noting. For one, he supports Trump's impulse to ask more of allies, but he criticizes the periodic "tantrum[s]" Trump has thrown at them. And while many have voiced concerns about a rising China, an aggressive Russia, and a new era of great-power conflict, Posen advises not to worry: If Russia really wanted to invade Europe, we'd see it coming, and while China is building up its navy, amphibious conquests of its neighbors wouldn't be so easy to achieve. In other words, despite warning signs, things will largely be fine. | | | | | | |
