| | | | Fareed: John Bolton Is the Trump Whisperer | | | In discerning a "Trump Doctrine," we should look first at the worldview of National Security Advisor John Bolton, Fareed writes in his latest Washington Post column: Trump is inconsistent, and as a result, his outlook "reflects the views of the man closest to him on foreign policy." Bolton is "a conservative, in the oldest, most classical sense: someone who has a dark view of humankind," and it shows in Trump's policies of national self-interest. Bolton's bellicosity is dangerous, Fareed writes, as unilateral US action undermines the case against other countries doing the same. "Nationalist assertiveness works as long as only you get to practice it," Fareed concludes. | | | The firing of Britain's defense secretary, for allegedly leaking government plans to let Huawei build part of the UK's 5G network (which he denies doing), shows how important China policy has become to Britain, writes Kerry Brown of Chatham House and King's College. "China is a global power now," he argues, and Huawei is an important dilemma for Britain; misjudgments on the issue can cut careers short, proving the reach of Huawei and China into UK politics. | | Nationalists Have a Global Movement | | | Nationalists "now work together, across borders, for common causes," The Washington Post's Anne Applebaum writes, after Spain's election saw the rise of a far-right party, Vox, that typifies the global movement the far right now enjoys. Conspiracy-tinged websites in different countries look similar, and in at least one case, a mysterious botnet championed different issues in different countries. Activists, strategists, and funders have informal links that cross borders, giving the far right a transnational quality that's now on display. | | A Crisis Around the Corner? | | | We shouldn't be surprised if President Trump's economy follows the trajectory of president George W. Bush's, Richard J. Carroll writes at Bloomberg. Similarities abound: Leveraged lending has risen under Trump, while regulations have been rolled back; both presidents ushered in tax cuts and deficits at times of low unemployment. Bush's economy, of course, ended in a global financial crash and worldwide recession. Another US downturn could be a problem for everyone—America's economy generally tracks the world's—and there may be more cause for concern, outside of Trump's policies. The US economy has been growing for 10 years, and Franck Portier writes at the Centre for Economic Policy Research that recessions become more likely as expansions continue. According to his model, the chance of America entering a recession in the next year sits in the 30-40% range, given how long the expansion has lasted. | | The Terrorist Consequences of Libya's Collapse | | | As civil war rages in Libya eight years after the 2011 Western campaign to topple Moammar Gadhafi, 14 countries have experienced terrorist attacks "emanating" from Libya since that intervention, Mark Curtis writes at Middle East Eye—including the 2015 Paris attacks, the 2017 bombing at a concert in Manchester, and the Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria. Libya has "become a hub for jihadist networks stretching south" into Africa, Curtis writes—a growing concern for observers of terrorism. With world and regional powers taking sides in Libya, Curtis's observation only reinforces the case, made recently by The Guardian, that Libya's collapse is an international problem. | | | | | | |
