| | | | Fareed: How Trump Dominates America's Crossroads | | Critics tempted to dismiss President Trump as a know-nothing who was just lucky in 2016 should pay attention to what has happened over the last month, Fareed writes in his latest Washington Post column. The President has turned the midterms into a national election—pushing a similar agenda to the one that propelled him to the White House.
"The challenge for the Democrats is a set of cultural issues—chiefly immigration, but also things such as transgender bathroom laws and respecting the flag—on which a key group of Americans thinks the Democrats are out of touch. An excellent study by the Democracy Fund found that people who had previously supported Barack Obama and then voted for Trump in 2016 (a crucial segment that Democrats could win back) agreed with the Democrats on almost all economic issues but disagreed with the party on immigration and other cultural matters," Fareed says.
"Eventually, the electorate will be more young and diverse, but in the meantime, the Republican Party is utterly dominant in American politics because it owns the bloody crossroads where culture and politics meet." | | The Truth About the Abe-Xi Bromance | | The meeting this week between Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Chinese President Xi Jinping marks a major turning point for Asia, writes Martin Fritz for Deutsche Welle. Thank President Trump for bringing them together.
"[T]he concrete reason underpinning this Sino-Japanese détente is the trade war being waged by US President Donald Trump and the tariffs slapped on Chinese goods. The US government is also becoming more concerned about political and military issues vis á vis China," Fritz writes.
"In this situation, China needs new friends. The charm offensive from Beijing is a way to keep Tokyo from joining Washington's strategy of isolation.
"Chinese President Xi Jinping surely has not given up his reservations about Shinzo Abe…Abe has pursued a more aggressive Japanese foreign policy, strengthening Japan's military for the first time in decades and opposing China's hegemonic claims in the region."
"Despite these thorny issues, China's leaders can no longer ignore Abe. Along with Angela Merkel's Germany, Abe's Japan has become an important advocate for global cooperation."
| | The World's Best Economy? | | | Imagine an economy with "rising incomes, low public debt [and] an affordable welfare state." Well, The Economist writes, you don't have to imagine it—just think of Australia.
True, "Australia is blessed with lots of iron ore and natural gas, and is relatively close to China, which hoovers up such things. But sound policymaking has helped, too. After the last recession, in 1991, the government of the day reformed the health-care and pensions systems, requiring the middle class to pay more of its own way," The Economist argues.
"Even more remarkable is Australia's enthusiasm for immigration. Some 29% of its inhabitants were born in another country—twice the proportion in the United States. Half of Australians are either immigrants themselves or children of immigrants. And the biggest source of immigrants is Asia, which is fast changing the country's racial mix. Compare that with America or Britain or Italy, where far smaller inflows have generated hostility among a big portion of the electorate…" | | Two Reasons Trump's Caravan Tweet Makes No Sense | | As a migrant caravan continued its journey north from Central America, President Trump tweeted that the administration would "begin cutting off, or substantially reducing, the massive foreign aid routinely given" given to some countries in the region. Shannon O'Neil writes for the Council on Foreign Relations that doing so would be counterproductive—and probably illegal.
"By undermining hard-fought and fragile pockets of stability in Central America's northern triangle nations, reducing present or future aid will just send more Central Americans north," O'Neil says.
"Even more cynically, Trump's tweets are largely empty threats. Congress has already funded these plans, so the administration needs to spend the money. Following through on his tweet to end foreign assistance is illegal under the Impoundment Act of 1974, though Trump can redirect parts of the already appropriated budget."
| | Where the Next Cold War Will Take Place | | Talk of a new Cold War, this time with China, typically focuses on trade or even a potential military clash in the South China Sea. But the tensions are just as acute in the tech world—and it could have dangerous repercussions, write Nicholas Thompson and Ian Bremmer for Wired.
"In the original Cold War, two ideological foes created rival geopolitical blocs that were effectively non-interoperable. The US was boxed out of the Soviet bloc, and vice versa. The same could easily happen again, to disastrous effect," they write.
"A new cold war that gradually isolates the Chinese and American tech sectors from each other would starve the US of much of the fuel it now relies on for innovation: American companies depend heavily on the Chinese market for their profits and for engineering and software talent. At the same time, it could actually create the kinds of dangers that hawks warn about now: It would increase the risk that one side could surprise the other with a decisive strategic breakthrough in AI or quantum computing."
| | Why Brazil Is Making China Nervous | | Jair Bolsonaro, the favorite to win the second round of Brazil's presidential election on Sunday, "is likely to position Brazil as a strong ally of the US in the region," The Wall Street Journal reports. One country expecting rockier ties with a Bolsonaro administration? China, Jake Spring suggests for Reuters.
"Bolsonaro has portrayed China, its largest trading partner, as a predator looking to dominate key sectors of its economy," Spring writes.
"With its own economy slowing, China cannot afford to become embroiled in another costly trade war like that which has erupted between Beijing and Washington.
"Two-way trade between China and Brazil stood at $75 billion last year, according to Brazilian government statistics. China has invested $124 billion in Brazil since 2003, mostly in the oil, mining and energy sectors." | | | | | | |
