The European Union may have tried to present a united front in defending the Iran deal earlier this week. It likely won't be enough to save it, writes Michael Hirsh for Foreign Policy. "China, Turkey, and a few other countries have continued to defy Trump by buying Iranian oil, raising the prospect that a few holdouts from US pressure could keep Iran's main industry afloat," Hirsh writes. "But one by one, nations are dropping out of trade with Tehran, fearful of US retaliation; the latest appears to be India, which after early defiance of Washington now seems set to cut its Iranian oil purchases to zero. Thus, the survival of the nuclear deal will almost certainly come down to the stare-off between the United States and Europe. And as the months go by, Iran will likely succumb to temptation to covertly resume its nuclear program." "European leaders know the deal is flawed. French President Emmanuel Macron laid out many of the weaknesses in his visit to Washington this year: It ignores Tehran's ballistic-missile program, turns a blind eye to Iran's military adventurism, and includes a sunset after which Iran could sprint to a bomb. Apparently, they can't bring themselves to agree on anything with the Trump Administration," the paper argues. "Europe would get better results—and maybe a better deal with Iran—if it coordinated with Washington to apply pressure on Iran to reopen the 2015 deal. Iran will refuse to talk as long as the mullahs think they have Europe on their side." |