| S&P500 Close 4,119.58 |  | -1.16% | | S&P500 Futures 4,138.25 |  | +0.04% | | 10Y Treasury 3.431% | | 0.00% | | As of TUE, MAY 02, 2023 • 08:17 ET | |
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| S&P500 Close 4,119.58 | | -1.16% | | | S&P500 Futures 4,138.25 | | +0.04% | | | 10Y Treasury 3.431% | | 0.00% | | As of TUE, MAY 02, 2023 • 08:17 ET |
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What you need to know today |
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| - U.S. markets fell on Tuesday as banking concerns overshadowed as investors braced for the Federal Reserve's policy meeting. Regional banks saw a sharp selloff, including shares of PacWest and Western Alliance.
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- Job openings in the U.S. fell further in March, marking nearly a two-year low, a sign that the jobs market is loosening. The Labor Department's release showed the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed openings totaled 9.59 million for the month, the lowest since April 2021 and below the FactSet estimate of 9.64 million.
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- Chegg CEO Dan Rosenweig told CNBC that the company's stock plunge of 48%, driven by comments in the company's earnings report about the risks of artificial intelligence, was "extraordinarily overblown." He had said in a Monday's earnings call that ChatGPT was "having an impact" on the company's new customer growth rate. The company, which initially became well known for developing a textbook rental model for college students, has expanded into homework and exam help products.
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- Russian President Vladimir Putin was warned that he could be arrested if he attends a BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) summit in Johannesburg in August. South Africa's Sunday Times newspaper cited government sources as saying that authorities would be compelled to detain Putin after the International Criminal Court in The Hague issued an arrest warrant in March.
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- PRO Here's what JPMorgan sees happening based on different scenarios for the Fed rate decision later today and how they see the market reaction.
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Jihye Lee | Tuesday May 02 2023 |
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Good morning from Singapore. It's Fed Day, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee is underway, and investors seem to be holding their breath as the meeting is expected to conclude with another 25-basis-point rate hike. But the big question is: Will this be the last?
Traders are pricing in an 86% chance of a rate hike, per the CME Group's FedWatch tool as of Asia's Wednesday morning — that's slightly lower than the 97% seen the day before. And according to The Wealth Alliance's CEO Rob Conzo, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell seems to be taking a page out of the playbook of Paul Volcker, a former Fed chair who was also tasked with tackling high inflation, in the 1980's.
Conzo says while Powell is expected to give small clues on the Fed's policy path forward — such as hint at whether there will be more rate hikes ahead — he's likely to stick to what he's been doing all along.
"His words that he used in past minutes were, 'We're going to keep at it.' That happened to be the name of Paul Volcker's autobiography: 'Keeping at It.' Jerome Powell is literally taking a page out of Paul Volcker's playbook," said Conzo.
There are other concerns on the horizon. The lack of progress in Washington on the debt ceiling is inducing anxiety among investors, with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warning the government could fail to meet its debt obligations as early as June 1.
As BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income Rick Reider put it, "This is transitioning to the market's No. 1 focus across debt and equity, with a very intense focus on near-term T-bill maturities."
Despite the worrying outlook, there are signs the worst could be nearing an end. Core inflation in the euro zone slowed unexpectedly in April, albeit while still at high levels. There is growth in China and India — which combined the International Monetary Fund sees making up roughly half of the world's growth this year. We'll also hear from the governor of the Bank of Korea — a major economy expected to be one of the first in the world to not just pause. but cut rates as global central banks near the end of their tightening cycles. |
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