Good morning from Singapore. We're seeing more signs that the U.S. economy is indeed slowing down following nine straight Federal Reserve rate hikes. The U.S. central bank targeted the red-hot labor market as it tries to bring down inflation, which peaked at a 41-year high last year.
A shrinking number of job openings isn't the only indicator that slower growth is ahead. Fewer people are inclined to quit their jobs. People quit when they're confident about their ability to switch jobs – and that figure rose by only 146,000 to just over 4 million.
And we're seeing companies such as Virgin Orbit filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the United States after failing to get more funding. The firm laid off nearly all its workforce. Amazon is piling on layoffs beyond the massive job cuts it already announced this year.
The message from JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon is anything but comforting – though he says the recent banking crisis is "nothing like what occurred during the 2008 global financial crisis," he emphasized that the worst is still ahead.
"Any crisis that damages Americans' trust in their banks damages all banks," he said – calling on regulators to keep better tabs on banks' risk management.
But real question is: Will the Fed keep going? The U.S. Labor Department will release fresh nonfarm payroll numbers for March this week. The street's expectation is that unemployment holds steady at 3.6%. If the jobs market proves more resilient than that, the Federal Reserve has room to hike even further.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets later today – a Reuters poll shows that economists expect to see a 25-basis-point hike. That would bring its cash rate to 5%, the highest the country has seen since 2008. Will New Zealand follow Australia by hitting the brakes on further hikes? Stay tuned for more.
