| | | | What Success With North Korea Looks Like | | Commentators are gravitating toward the notion that, when it comes to fixing the world's problems with North Korea, economic development is the key. Writing at Project Syndicate, former South Korean minister of foreign affairs Yoon Young-kwan argues that changing North Korea's regime is a worthwhile goal—not by overthrowing it, but by making it more open to economic integration.
The idea is that President Trump's summit with Kim in Hanoi should be judged on broader terms than nuclear sticking points. Kim Jong-Un is more open to market economics than his father was, Yoon writes. If sanctions can be eased, he argues, that will open the door to North-South development cooperation and for international experts to help North Korea make reforms.
Of course, with Kim unwilling to give up the nuclear weapons that keep sanctions in place, progress on those fronts could be tricky. | | How Gas Fuels the Trade War | | We hear a lot about soybeans, steel, and aluminum, but another bargaining chip in the US/China trade war has attracted less attention: energy. President Trump has said he wants America to achieve "energy dominance," and while the US has ramped up its liquefied natural gas (LNG) production, American sellers will need buyers.
Enter China: US energy exports to China took a nosedive in 2018, The Economist points out, writing that "China has used imports of oil and gas as a bargaining tool, offering to increase purchases as part of any deal with America." China is using that tactic even as it needs more energy. China is importing record volumes of LNG, but regional pipeline projects figure to cover only some of its rising demand. So with China in need, and the US eager to sell as it expands LNG production, that bargaining chip appears solidly on the table.
A hallmark of the trade war, the global energy economy is caught in the middle: The Economist notes that global energy demand will take a hit if the US/China dispute isn't resolved. | | At a time when authoritarianism is on the rise, India finds itself uniquely immune, Ruchir Sharma writes in Foreign Affairs. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has generated fears about Hindu nationalism and strongman politics in the world's largest democracy, but the country's fractured society is likely to constrain him, and his BJP party, even if he wins reelection this spring, Sharma writes.
India's "complex ecosystem of identities will continue to act as a powerful break on a descent into outright ethnonationalism," offering a lesson that while collective action might be tough in diverse, fragmented societies, there's an inherent resilience to them, as unrelated groups can unite against keeping one person in power too long.
It's a lesson about economics, too: India's 7.4% real GDP growth has outpaced other large economies, but spreading those gains is key to politicians in power. Modi may have realized that already, as he's shifted from promoting free markets to promising welfare, Sharma writes—a sign that he needs to broaden his appeal. | | Populism Is Here to Stay—for Now | | Despite predictions of populism's decline, the trend isn't going anywhere, Joshua Kurlantzick writes in the World Politics Review.Populist parties have grown across Europe, and countries like Thailand and Argentina appear ripe for populist resurgence.
It may be a while before the tide ebbs. Populist-autocratic governments often prove ineffective and corrupt, Kurlantzick writes, but "disillusionment takes time." Point being: The world may have to wait for populist movements to succeed, and actually take power, before publics sour on them.
In the meantime, those movements are having an impact even where they haven't yet taken control, pushing centrists rightward and affecting countries' politics indirectly. | | China Turns to Private Security Firms | | Along with its expansion of infrastructure projects overseas, China has turned to private security firms akin to Blackwater to protect them, Chatham House details. A larger footprint in less-stable regions means added security risks, and private firms are filling the vacuum.
Africa has been the prime location for these contracts, but security incidents in Central Asia "might tempt" Chinese companies to hire private armies closer to their own doorstep, as China's Belt and Road initiative expands in the region. | | | | | | |
