| | | | The Shadow War Bursts into the Open | | The shadow war between Israel and Iran has burst into the open after forces from the two countries exchanged strikes overnight. President Trump's decision to walk away from the Iran nuclear deal might help tip the region toward a wider conflict, suggests Nic Robertson for CNN.
"Most European diplomats fear that once the Trump administration leans on European businesses hard enough, they won't be able to plug the economic shortfall, something [Iranian President Hassan] Rouhani needs so he can sell the Iran deal without America at home," Robertson writes.
"In short, the gloves in a potential Israel-Iran confrontation are coming off. The question is this: was last night the opening salvo, or a sign of what is to come?"
"Today, it's still possible—albeit highly improbable—that should Trump decide, he could give European businesses 'cutouts' and allow them to continue working in Iran; then maybe Iran's moderates can buy more time and rein in their hardliners before it's too late.
"But the reality is, exiting the [Iran nuclear agreement] has ushered in a new era of international relations where the unexpected and unpredictable have a far greater possibility of rapidly outpacing common sense and routine diplomacy." "Moscow's main interest is what it calls 'stability' in Syria. That means basically not entering into new conflicts with the US and its partners in eastern Syria, Jordan and the Syrian rebels in the South or Turkey and the rebels in the north. It also means not having Iran and Israel fight a war in Syria," Frantzman writes.
"In contrast to the Trump administration's goals in Syria, which have tacked from staying or going, Russia's are clear […] What is less clear, is which way Russia is trending on Iran's role in Syria."
| | Team Trump's New BFFs Could Mean Forever War | | | The decision to walk away from the Iran nuclear deal underscored the dramatic shift that has taken place in the way the US values its alliances in the Trump era, writes Andrew Bacevich in The Spectator. Out are France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. In is a new Saudi-American-Israeli axis—and potentially, endless war.
"The creation of this new partnership confirms the fact that NATO no longer constitutes the central pillar of US national security policy. Dating from its creation back in 1949, the purpose of the now essentially defunct Western alliance was to contain the Soviet Union, prevent war, and nurture liberal democratic values. Today the USSR is long gone. And if the West still exists, it no longer really matters, at least in Trump's estimation," Bacevich argues.
"As a candidate for president, Trump seemed to understand that US military interventionism in the Middle East had exacted huge costs while accomplishing next to nothing. If elected, he was going to extricate the United States from endless war. Now, Trump is deep-sixing one of the few glimmers of hope that the United States might some day extricate itself from the mess that it has done so much to create. Instead, apparently egged on by the likes of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and national security adviser John Bolton, the president has decided to continue the futile and counterproductive effort to assert hegemony in the Greater Middle East." | | Why Malaysia's Upset Matters | | | Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad secured a stunning win in Wednesday's general election, ending six decades in power for the ruling coalition party, Barisan Nasional. Michael Vatikiotis writes for Nikkei Asian Review that the "impact of this election will reverberate far beyond Malaysia's borders."
The "triumph of popular will over entrenched and privileged state power flies in the face of stalled democratic transitions and reversals in the region. The result will jolt the military junta in neighboring Thailand, which has failed to set a date for promised elections four years after seizing power in a coup. It will reinforce Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen's fear of a 'color revolution'—he faces polls in July, but has banned the main opposition party and jailed its leader," Vatikiotis says.
Meanwhile, "China's embrace of countries in Southeast Asia has relied on support for authoritarian status quo, and Beijing made no secret of its support for [defeated incumbent] Najib." | | The Other Problem with America's Missing Envoys | | The unusually large number of vacant US ambassador posts around the world—55—isn't just bad for US diplomacy. It's hurting US companies abroad, writes Geoffrey Gertz for The Washington Post.
"During temporary ambassador vacancies, US businesses are significantly more likely to file investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) claims under bilateral investment treaties, alleging mistreatment by the host country's government. The expected number of arbitration claims filed by American investors in a given country in a given year was nearly twice as high when the position of US ambassador was vacant for 90 percent of the year, compared with when an ambassador was present the entire year," Gertz writes.
"Why are ambassadors so important to helping US businesses avoid investment disputes, particularly in countries where policies are implemented inconsistently and arbitrarily? Because behind the scenes, ambassadors are working with that country's government to help settle firms' problems before they escalate into formal investor-state disputes. They're helping firms get meetings with foreign government officials…And they're warning foreign governments that if they mistreat US businesses it will damage their countries' international reputation and scare off other would-be investors."
| | Why Singapore Was the Smart Pick | | President Trump tweeted Thursday that the date and location for a meeting with Kim Jong Un have been set: June 12, in Singapore. Picking the city-state to host the summit makes sense, writes Joshua Keating in Slate.
"It's a rare country that historically has had good relations with both the United States and North Korea—North Korea has an embassy there. Until recently, Singapore was one of North Korea's largest trading partners, and North Koreans enjoyed visa-free travel there, though the Singaporeans have cracked down lately in compliance with U.N. sanctions," Keating writes.
"Singapore also has experience hosting major summits—it was the location of the historic meeting between Presidents Xi Jinping of China and Ma Ying-jeou of Taiwan in 2015. The security details for Trump and Kim will also likely appreciate that the authoritarian city-state is likely to keep public disturbances to a minimum." | | | | | | |
