| | | | Jimmy Carter's Big Lesson for Trump | | President Trump might be tempted to agree to the withdrawal of US troops from South Korea in exchange for a deal with North Korea on its nuclear program. But if he's hoping for a quick exit he's destined for disappointment, writes Clint Work for Foreign Policy. Just ask one of his predecessors.
On taking office, President Jimmy Carter "quickly moved to implement his campaign promise to remove all US ground combat forces of the 2nd Infantry Division from South Korea. However, by July 1979 his troop withdrawal policy was dead, killed by resistance within the US foreign-policy establishment and Congress, as well as among regional allies. Carter's experience carries powerful lessons for any plan to demilitarize the peninsula today," Work writes.
"The US military presence remains part of a wider regional framework, with the defense of Japan and the US-Japanese alliance as a preeminent consideration. Removing US forces from South Korea, if done in a way that does not take Japanese sensitivities into consideration, could still easily spark Tokyo's drive to advance its already considerable military capabilities in a manner that destabilizes the region[…]Japanese rearmament would be a spur to China's own military ambitions and spending."
| | | President Trump appears fixated on the nuclear deal. As a result, he risks missing the biggest threat Iran poses, argues David Gardner in the Financial Times.
"While Mr. Trump obsesses over the nuclear deal, Iran is using its paramilitary muscle not just to consolidate political power but to win a degree of what might pass as legitimacy."
"Iran's reputation among Arabs and Muslims has fluctuated," Gardner writes. It sank "with its sectarian Shia response to the Arab revolts from 2011. That changed with the rise of ISIS, and the perception that US allies such as Saudi Arabia were betting on Sunni jihadism. Iranian propaganda exploited this, with a story claiming that but for Iran and its 'resistance' forces such as Hezbollah, the black flags of the jihadis would be flying over Baghdad and Damascus, and ISIS would have broken into Beirut.
"Like all good propaganda, it contains a kernel of truth. So much so that, while Mr. Trump decides in coming days whether to tear up the nuclear deal, two Western-backed Arab countries that are simultaneously inside Iran's sphere of influence — Lebanon and Iraq — may well see election victories for Iranian proxies and allies." | | | For decades, it was widely assumed the fall of the Soviet Union would mean China would eventually join the "trend toward the political and economic triumph of free-market democracies," writes Sebastian Heilmann in the Nikkei Asian Review. Fast forward to today, though, and China's authoritarian system is looking less outdated than expected. Indeed, when it comes to modern governing, it might have a few things that appeal to the West.
"Red Swan China now seems better positioned than liberal democracies to deal with the mega-challenges of the 21st century, from climate solutions to smart city management. Many big data-based technologies that are being pioneered in China these days -- from intelligent traffic management to online payment systems -- serve the purposes of enhanced surveillance. The most prominent example is the 'social credit system,' which rates the trustworthiness of citizens, companies and institutions based on their compliance with economic and social rules, with consequences on everything from loan approvals to access to flights and trains," Heilmann writes.
"At the same time, these new tools are attractive not just for authoritarian regimes. The underlying technologies of China's new techno-authoritarianism are exportable and applicable around the world as they address many worries of our age, from mounting security threats to urbanization and environmental pressures." | | India: Air Pollution Capital | | India has 14 of the world's 20 most polluted cities, according to the latest data from the World Health Organization, with the city of Kanpur registering concentrations of the deadliest fine particulate matter (PM2.5) at a rate around 25 times that found in New York City.
According to the report, which covers more than 4,300 cities and towns around the world, around 9 out of 10 people are breathing air containing high levels of pollutants, with the WHO estimating "that around 7 million people die every year from exposure to fine particles in polluted air."
"Major sources of air pollution from particulate matter include the inefficient use of energy by households, industry, the agriculture and transport sectors, and coal-fired power plants. In some regions, sand and desert dust, waste burning and deforestation are additional sources of air pollution," the report finds.
| | What Does $78 Billion Buy in Afghanistan? Not What US Hoped | | The US may have stepped up the air war in Afghanistan. But on the ground, despite spending "more than $78 billion trying to build up the country's army and police forces from nearly scratch," it's far from clear the US is getting the hoped for bang for its buck, suggests Craig Nelson in the Wall Street Journal.
"The total number of army and police personnel was 296,409 as of Jan. 31, a decrease of 35,999 from a year earlier," Nelson writes, citing a report by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction. "Also, the Taliban and other Islamist militant groups controlled 14.5% of Afghanistan's 407 districts, it said—the highest level since late 2015, when the auditing agency started recording such data."
He adds: "The US has invested more than $126 billion in various types of reconstruction and relief aid to Afghanistan since 2002, nearly 62% of it—or $78.2 billion—for training and otherwise supporting the country's security forces."
| | Guess Which Country Is Spending Less on its Military? | | Russia might have to start reining in its military ambitions, at least judging from what it's willing to spend, suggests Rick Noack in the Washington Post.
"While global military spending grew last year, Russia's fell from $69.2 billion in 2016 to $66.3 billion," Noack notes, citing the latest figures from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. "It was the first time Russian military expenditure fell since 1998 — the year the country defaulted on its debts."
"The Kremlin's plans to cut back on its military comes as military expenditure is on the rise across the world, topping $1.74 trillion in 2017. While US spending still outmatched every other global power, its expenditure remained constant last year. China's rose once again." | | | | | | |
