| | | | Iran, 40 Years After the Revolution | | As Iran marks the 40th anniversary of its 1979 Islamic Revolution, The Economist sees a country "less pious than the mullahs would like, less prosperous than it should be and less engaged with the world than most countries"—steeped in enmity with the US, led by a clerical regime out of step with modernizing trends, but without a solidified opposition movement.
Iranian politics remain more nuanced than many in the West see. Narges Bajoghli offers a complex picture in Foreign Affairs: Members of the country's large, voluntary Basij paramilitary forces don't quite agree on outreach to moderates and protesters, and its younger members—not its old guard—often take a harder line.
Iran's people want reform and democratization, writes The Washington Post's Jason Rezaian, but amid economic problems and regional "misadventures," Iran's immediate future looks difficult. Meanwhile, Iran finds itself with better geopolitical standing than in 1979. Its "deft" diplomacy has divided the US from the EU, and Iran enjoys a "stronger regional position than at any time" since the revolution, The Soufan Group writes. | | Soros Worries Europe Could Split | | The European project is in danger, George Soros writes in Project Syndicate, worrying that "the dream of a united Europe could become the nightmare of the twenty-first century."
Pro-European parties face a tough road in May's elections, Soros writes, citing not only the refugee crisis's ripple effects but also "antiquated" party structures and crumbling centrist alliances, within EU countries, that have accompanied the rise of Eurosceptics.
Soros isn't the only one worried: Anti-EU parties could capture a third of the European Parliament, banding together and derailing the EU's agenda as it stands, a European Council on Foreign Relations report warns. | | Who Will Lead Britain Out of (and After) Brexit? | | | Brexit is a moment of upheaval not unlike the French Revolution—one that will result in a new leader rising out of the chaos, Tom McTague writes in Politico Europe. It's not clear yet who that will be, but MPs are waiting and wondering to find out who will be Brexit's Napoleon.
Fragile leadership and disenchantment appear to be continuing apace, as The Times reports Prime Minister Theresa May has risked losing support from her ministers after offering concessions to Labour, and The Telegraph asks why the government isn't acting more urgently, if Britain is indeed heading for a no-deal Brexit. | | Will China Face a Labor Shortage? | | If there's one thing China has in abundance, it's people, so a prediction cited by The Wall Street Journal may sound counterintuitive: The world's most populous country, whose government has restricted childbirths, will struggle to maintain its large workforce amid population declines by 2030.
China's growth has slowed, but if its workforce declines, we should keep other economic changes in mind: Morgan Stanley predicts income per capita to continue rising and that China will break into bona-fide "high-income society" status in 10 years, driven in part by the purchasing demands of an older, wealthier consumer class. | | Bill Gates: Africa Is at a Crossroads | | Africa faces a development crossroads, Bill Gates tells The Washington Post: "They've certainly been left behind in that they are the poorest continent, even though they've had a good 20 years by many measures. It hangs in the balance of how much catch-up will do it—they could also fall further behind."
On many measures, Africa's difficulties continue—on disease and infant mortality, in particular—but Gates takes a sanguine view that these problems can successfully be addressed: "I engage in African health because with the right partnership, we can get a lot done, and it's the last place on earth where [in some places] 20 percent of the kids die before the age of 5. It is not unrealistic to get that number [to] 4 percent." | | | | | | |
