| | | | Critics of President Trump's sanctions on Iran seem confident that the country's leaders won't come back to the negotiating table, writes Dennis Ross in Foreign Policy. But as the squeeze on Tehran continues, there is a way out. And Vladimir Putin might be the one who helps make it happen.
"Iran is likely to seek a way to talk—not directly, because that would look like a surrender. Instead, early next year Iran's leaders will likely approach the Russians. They see how Trump relates to Putin, and with Putin's interest in demonstrating Russian clout on the world stage, he will gladly be the arbiter between the United State and Iran. (Not least because Putin would likely be eager for the talks to include discussions about Syria's future.)
"One can envision Putin, perhaps in his upcoming summit meeting with Trump in early 2019, bringing a proposal to extend the nuclear deal's limits on Iranian centrifuges and enriched material for 10 to 15 years in return for the United States dropping all its sanctions. In other words, in return for the restrictions on Iranian enrichment being extended from 2030 until 2045, the United States would drop all its existing sanctions…"
| | Why China's Leaders Might Need a Plan B | | | China's leadership was hoping that it could rely on domestic consumers to take the sting out of any US tariffs, the South China Morning Post editorializes. But as Chinese spending habits start to look more like those of Americans, Beijing might need a Plan B.
"China may be renowned for the high savings levels of households, which are partly attributable to Chinese culture, but they are also due to the thrift of an older generation who endured hardships in the 1960s and 1970s that made them mindful of the need to save for a rainy day.
"China's new generation has a very different mentality, more akin to American counterparts, in the sense of living on borrowed money," the paper argues.
"Not only has the level of household debt become a serious concern, but the government has tightened credit. Faced with an uncertain outlook, the middle class has begun cutting back on conspicuous consumption. It is a self-fulfilling lack of confidence which, if not managed carefully, could have a serious knock-on effect." | | Demographic Dividend, Or Demographic Time Bomb? | | | The rapid growth of Africa's population is one of the big but largely overlooked trends that will shape the world's future. But the continent's leaders are making a mistake if they assume that its youthful population means a demographic dividend is inevitable, writes David Pilling in the Financial Times. It could turn instead into a demographic time bomb.
"The UN's base case is that the number of Africans will double in 30 years to 2 billion and at least double again, to 4 billion, by the end of the century. If all those new people can find jobs and opportunity, global growth will gradually shift to Africa," Pilling writes.
"If, as seems equally plausible, they cannot, Africa could become a focus of instability and desperation. Food shortages could worsen, exacerbated by climate change. Clashes such as those between Nigeria's Fulani herdsman and sedentary farmers that have claimed thousands of lives could intensify along with the struggle for land and resources. The population of Nigeria alone, 45 million at independence and 180 million today, is expected to more than double again by 2050, surpassing that of the US." | | A Problem Made in Italy, and the Rest of Europe, and America… | | The exact cause of the bridge collapse in Italy this week is yet to be determined. But one thing is already clear, The Economist says: This is a global problem.
"Bridges throughout Europe, America and Asia are all showing signs of deterioration. As long ago as 1999, one study showed that 30% of road bridges surveyed in Europe had some sort of defect, often involving corrosion of their reinforcement. And a report this year found that more than 54,000 out of the 613,000 bridges in America are rated 'structurally deficient.' These dodgy bridges are crossed 174 million times a day," The Economist says.
"In many cases, structures that might have been expected to last a century or so will now probably have to be replaced in half the time because of various forms of structural deterioration."
| | China's New Message: Rising Superpower? What, Where? | | Worried that its rise is spooking the neighbors—and antagonizing the United States—China's leaders have a new message, writes Amanda Erickson for The Washington Post: "We're not that great. Really."
"In the past several months, Beijing has urged its officials and party outlets to tamp down the swagger about China's economic strength. Rather than behemoth, Beijing has begun to pitch itself as a humble helper, an aide to countries in need," Erickson writes.
"Editorials in the state-run People's Daily cautioned against describing China's accomplishments as 'the world's first' or 'number one in the world.' This kind of braggadocio, writers argued, 'could easily make people misunderstand or even misjudge' the country."
| | America's "Facebook Friends" Addiction | | US diplomacy has increasingly made America look like a Facebook user determined to acquire "friends," writes Doug Bandow for The American Conservative. Unfortunately, from Argentina, to Israel to the Philippines, these friendships are at best window dressing, and at worst undermining US interests.
The Saudi government, for example, "shares few interests and values with America. Politically and religiously, Saudi is a totalitarian state," Bandow writes.
"Pakistan has continually undermined America's policy in neighboring Afghanistan. The Philippines has a military even less fit for combat than Germany's but expects Washington to fight China to protect its contested territorial claims."
"Alliances are not social clubs to which all countries should belong. They are a means to an end, military organizations that should enhance America's security. Most of our allies today fail that standard. Ending unnecessary alliances doesn't mean always going it alone. It means cooperating with countries towards shared ends while maintaining the flexibility to assess the degree of danger and proper response." | | | | | | |
